Expanded playoffs make it hard to predict whether Skubal, Chapman, Gray get dealt

PHILADELPHIA (AP) — Expanded playoffs make it harder to predict whether Tarik Skubal and other choice acquisitions will be dealt before the Aug, 3 trade deadline.

Twenty-three of the 30 teams are within four games of a playoff position heading into the season's second half, which opens Thursday with the back-in-contention Philadelphia Phillies hosting the woeful New York Mets.

“You’ve got a lot of really good teams that were on the bubble that have gotten in and kind of made it,” Phillies first baseman Bryce Harper said. “Anybody that has an opportunity to get in, anything can happen and that’s what makes our sport great.”

Skubal, a two-time Cy Young Award winner who can become a free agent after the World Series, is the most prominent possible trade bait. The 29-year-old left-hander is 2-3 with a 3.62 ERA in six starts for the Detroit Tigers since surgery on May 6 to remove a loose body from his pitching elbow.

He returned to a big league mound on June 13 after Dr. Neal ElAttrache operated with a NanoNeedle scope 2.0, a miniaturized, flexible version of the traditional arthroscope.

Detroit was 22-38 at the start of June — at 16 games under matching the 1914 Braves (12-28) as the most under .500 of a team that rebounded to reach the postseason, according to the Elias Sports Bureau. The Tigers are 22-14 since and trail by 3 1/2 games for the last AL wild card, needing to overcome six teams. Their performance in 16 games before the deadline will help determine whether they are buyers or sellers.

Minnesota's Joe Ryan and the Mets' Freddy Peralta also could become available. The Mets also could deal left-handed relievers Brooks Raley and A.J. Minter to contenders and San Francisco may try to jettison second baseman Luis Arraez.

Baseball’s only division leads of more than three games are held by the Los Angeles Dodgers (11 1/2) and Milwaukee (five).

“There are some middling teams that are potentially going to finish stronger and some teams that are front-running right now that might fall back to the pack,” Dodgers manager Dave Roberts said. “It’s what the fans wanted. It keeps everyone involved through September, as many teams as possible.”

Just seven teams of the 30 teams are more than four games out of a wild-card berth: the Athletics (6 1/2), Cincinnati (eight), Kansas City and the Los Angeles Angels (10 each), the Giants (10 1/2), the Mets (12) and Colorado (13 1/2).

“I think having more teams involved and more fan bases feeling like there’s something to play for later in the season is always good,” said Toronto pitcher Dylan Cease, the All-Star Game winner.

Philadelphia fell to 9-19 when Rob Thomson was fired on April 28 and replaced by Don Mattingly. The Phillies are 44-24 since and trail NL East-leading Atlanta (55-40) by two games.

Harper thinks a key to the turnaround was when Zack Wheeler rejoined the rotation on April 25 after surgery last August for thoracic outlet syndrome. Wheeler is 10-1 with a 2.13 ERA.

“Once we got Wheels back, I think everybody kind of took a deep breath,” Harper said. “That helped a lot of our other starting pitching kind of just fall into place.”

Boston fired Alex Cora after a 10-17 start and the Red Sox are 36-31 under Chad Tracy, ending the first half with their first 9-0 road trip since 1977.

Despite a 46-48 record, the Red Sox trail by just a half-game for the last wild card in an AL that has just five teams with winning records.

“We've done a much better job overall with our approach,” Tracy said. “We’re taking more pitches. We’re seeing more pitches against starters. We are getting starters deep in counts earlier in games. We're scoring runs in the first five innings of the game and letting our starting rotation pitch with a lead.”

If the Red Sox struggle in the next few weeks, closer Aroldis Chapman and starter Sonny Gray could get dealt.

Three of the four teams that had first-round byes last year advanced to League Championship Series: Milwaukee, Philadelphia, Seattle and Toronto. Among the teams emerging from Wild Card Series, only the Dodgers won their Division Series.

Having the bye allows teams to reset their rotations and assure opening the Division Series with their best starters.

Yankees pitcher Cam Schlittler thought back to New York losing the AL East title and the bye to Toronto on a tiebreaker last year.

“Every game matters,” he said.

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